Shaping up the primary field until Iowa

Though the first two Democratic primary debates garnered 15M and 17M viewers, respectively and had their fair share of chaos and controversy, nothing appears to be shifting the filter between top tier candidates and the rest of the pack.

Twenty-five candidates are running for the nomination. But, only five to six of them are serious contenders for the nomination. The Real Clear Politics average shows that five candidates combined—Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg—take between 71 percent to 76 percent of the vote in national and early state polling. Nothing that happened in these two debates changed that math.

Agreed. The next set of debates is 7/30 and 7/31. Who will make the fundraising thresholds, and who just needs to GTFO…

Doctor Pundit. @doctorpundit

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