Just how effective are vaccines at keeping mass pandemics of infectious disease abated? Well, it may not be so easy to estimate.

[T]he number of annual flu-related deaths in the United States has ranged from a low of about 3,300 to a high of about 49,000. This is a revision of the static estimate of 36,000 annual deaths that has been reported consistently for years by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC has revised its projections on the preventive care of the seasonal influenza vaccine, moving from statistical dead targets to ranges of mortality among influenza outbreak figures. Its projections cover most of the past 30 years (up to 2007, and not inclusive of last year’s H1N1 pandemic). | PDF  LINK to latest issue of CDC’s Morbidity & Mortality Weekly

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