House Speaker Pelosi says she is confident that healthcare reform will pass. This, apparently, is the major mode of thought coming from the Democrats as a result of the flurry of activity and speculation filling the Sunday morning talkfests yesterday. Relying on the sheer numbers of votes in her party, the pronouncement comes a few days ahead of President Obama’s announcement later this week of how he’ll proceed on reform.

Votes are one thing, but how those votes will be cast is quite another — and in the Beltway, perception is everything. The GOP is ready to counter any move by the Dems with criticism they hope to ride all the way to November. If it’s getting the bill through reconciliation (to avoid a filibuster)^[1] or starting over from “scratch” — the GOP’s version of a legislative “gotcha” directed toward Obama — the Democrats seem to be playing a risky game with the nation closely divided on the reform bill as it stands today.

Spring break in Congress occurs on 3/26. Will things be wrapped up by them? Will the long road to reform end with votes to secure a bill, any bill? Or will it come down to reconciliation as the line in the sand: for the Dems, it means passing a bill to expand Medicaid, require employer-sponsored coverage, and require people to have coverage; for the GOP, it means fighting against reconciliation and turning Obama’s push for reform into a protracted referendum on the balance of power in Congress come November. | LINK

1. The House would pass the health bill approved in December by the Senate, and both chambers would approve changes, separately. [↩]

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