Out yesterday is new data from the medical school application clearinghouse, the AAMC. It shows that the number of students entering the nation’s 137 accredited medical schools will increase nearly 30 percent from 2002 levels by 2016. Apparently this benchmark satisfies a goal set in the mid-2000s by medical schools in response to aging patient populations and the pending 65th birthday of the oldest in the Boomer demographic. All said, over 19,000 first-year students will enter medical school this fall, up from just over 16,000 ten years ago. More physicians means an effective buffer against factors like this and others, such as the looming retirment of many physicians. Good thing, right?
Not so fast. If current trends hold, the numbers of newly-minted MDs and DOs sacrificing primary care demand for higher-paying subspecialties will continue to eclipse any meaningful increase in the talent supply pipeline, bringing the cost of training these future proceduralists with it. This says nothing about the effect instant healthcare consumer coverage and the subsequent need for primary care phsyicians will demand in 2014 upon reform’s start. Indeed, more is not always better.
A recent survey of Medicare beneficiaries conducted by Dartmouth and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and published last year in Health Affairs found patients living in areas with more physicians per capita perceived no differences in their access to health care than beneficiaries with fewer available physicians. Moreover, there were no differences between the two groups in terms of visits or time spent with their personal physician, the number of tests they received or the number of specialists they saw.
As long as the reimbursement structure tilts toward specialization, there will always be an uphill battle for primary care penetration, to say nothing of care delivery in very rural and underserved urban markets.
Is the answer in revising payment schemes via coordinated care mechanisms, as this article suggests, or is the point-of-care the appropriate place to focus on quality, and by extension, cost containment? It would seem that the latter would take a more protracted course, with results probably more equivocal than certain. All the while, primary care rolls will continue to plateau and fall in comparison. Organizations may be more suited to focus on midlevel providers to compensate, but at what cost to the organization?
For all of these questions, we do have some answers. If you build it, they may come, but at a higher cost. With the potential for burgeoning access to healthcare under reform, cost to provide care — not increasing physician representation in the marketplace — will continue to be the driver that will characterize primary care’s role in medicine under reform, and right now, it’s not looking to rosy.